As some of you know, the Democratic National Committee recently made South Carolina the “first-in-the-nation” primary for the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries. South Carolina replaces Iowa as the FITN, and with that designation came a lot of negative responses being directed at my home state.
I’m obviously biased here, but I know that South Carolina makes a lot of sense as the FITN for a few reasons that may escape the average voter or commentator who doesn’t understand why a state that, in general elections, is reliably red makes sense to be the first state to vote for a Democratic presidential primary. And, no, it’s not about “rewarding” Congressman Clyburn.
South Carolina is a relatively small state that is comparatively inexpensive to campaign in relative to more “important” swing states. Campaigns spend lots of money buying television time, and a good marker of how expensive states are to campaign in is the number of Designated Market Areas, or DMAs. So, if a state has 3 DMAs, they have enough money to buy enough ad time to make an impact across each of the DMAs. South Carolina has 8 DMAs. Georgia has 11, North Carolina has 10, Pennsylvania has 11, Ohio has 12, and Michigan has 11. So, for less well-funded campaigns, South Carolina gives candidates a chance to compete and build name recognition in a state that is both less expensive and geographically smaller to campaign in, allowing candidates to do more of the retail campaigning that voters often appreciate. South Carolina is a good campaign for insurgents, so if you’re AOC or a lesser-known candidate, South Carolina is an opportunity.
South Carolina is not a caucus state. I hate caucuses. They’re undemocratic, and Iowa showed you last time that they’re also error-prone and can reward interest parties and organization over what voters want. South Carolina is a primary where voters vote; they aren’t going to caucuses in gymnasiums and doing weird things that caucuses require. In an era where democracy is under attack, we shouldn’t support undemocratic institutions like caucuses.
Black voters are under attack. South Carolina is our first chance to speak nationally on what matters to Black voters. Black voters make up roughly 55% to 60% of the Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina. No other general election swing state comes close. The other states that do – Maryland, Louisiana, Mississippi – aren’t swing states. So, if the goal is to ensure that candidates prioritize the Party’s most loyal voting bloc, you won’t find many states better than South Carolina. Also, Black voters are under attack by this Administration, so why wouldn’t you want this group of voters to have the first shot at helping to shape who replaces Donald Trump?
South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary is a majority-Black electorate, effectively forcing Democratic candidates to speak directly to the needs of Black voters. There is a reason why ethanol and agriculture were always issues that Presidential candidates had to get smart on, and it was because Iowa was first. Now, imagine if instead of ethanol, candidates are forced to prioritize issues like funding for HBCUs, restoring minority contracting across the federal government, and addressing the racial wealth gap. This is what South Carolina, as the FITN, does because you don’t get my endorsement or anyone else’s without it.
South Carolina is the country’s fastest-growing state and has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas and looks a lot like other fast-growing Sunbelt states. Most folks on the internet think that South Carolina is still stuck in the 60s, but it’s the country’s fastest-growing state. And, areas like Charleston, Greenville, and Myrtle Beach are full of former Ohioans, Michiganders, and New Yorkers who have moved to the state – so our Democratic primary gives us both the traditional Democratic base vote in older Black voters as well as a diverse mix of Democratic voters that looks like the rest of the Sunbelt. This, again, gives candidates something different than the lily-white Iowa and New Hampshire voters they’ve had to accommodate for the past few decades.
There’s an adage of “judge me by my enemies”, and the people who have the most heartburn about this are almost exclusively White Progressives who still have scars from Senator Sanders’ experience in South Carolina in 2016. And, because this wing of the Party is now ascendant – at least on the internet – they see South Carolina as a hurdle instead of the opportunity that it presents. Because, if this group wants to win in 2028, they must make more inroads with older, Black voters and Black voters generally. South Carolina is the perfect place for them to test-drive a different approach and different messengers that could make them more palatable in other Super Tuesday states in the South and in a general election. Instead, they’d rather cast aspersions about largely Black South Carolinians like my parents and family and the voters who supported me for years in the state legislature instead of taking the time to learn the state. That’s unfortunate. The good news is the candidates that do understand this opportunity will be the ones that I predict will go farther in the primary campaign than others. South Carolina has a tradition of picking the nominee, and going first will probably only amplify that trend.
Bakari, this 66 yr old Black man is voting for the couch.
And here something you BETTER tell you Democrat paymasters.
The ONLY reason Illinois is a so-called blue state is due to the Black vote in Chicago. Once you get outside of Cook County, you're in Trumpland.
Democrats have FAed, come this November they're about to FO.
Probably!!