2026 Races to Watch: Georgia Is On My Mind
Georgia is the test. What Democrats do next will tell us everything.
This year is an election year as many of you know. And throughout 2026, I will highlight key races that I think will not only shift the balance of power in Washington and in our states, but that will also give us a glimpse into 2028 and beyond.
I’m starting this feature in The Moment with Georgia’s Gubernatorial and Senate races as two races that will tell us about just how “swingy” Georgia is (or not). More broadly, I think Georgia gives us a glimpse into how Democrats fare in critical “Sun Belt” states like Georgia in 2026 as populations shifts from Democrats’ Blue Wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
So, why Georgia –
Georgia’s Black voters tell me where the rest of Black voters are in 2026 (and possibly in 2028). Almost half of the voters in Georgia’s Democratic primaries are Black, and in any general election Black voters make up about one-third of the electorate. Georgia’s Black voters include large shares of urban, suburban, and rural voters making Georgia one of the largest, diverse, and influential Black electorates in the country. The level of voter enthusiasm from Georgia’s Black voters and the issues that mobilize them this cycle will likely be a good indicator of where most Black voters are in 2026 – and potentially in 2028.
The 2024 drop off of Black male voters under 50 was dramatic in Georgia, and it’s a trend I’m watching in 2026. The Brennan Center found that the growth in Georgia’s Black-White racial turnout gap in 2024 was largely concentrated among younger Black men under 50 – far more than any other group of voters in Georgia. Going back to my point above regarding Georgia’s electorate (and my points below on the Senate), Democrats’ chances in the Senate could come down to young Black men being re-engaged in Georgia in 2026. How we engage young Black men, when we do it, how much we invest in it, and where we do it in 2026 will tell me if Democrats learned from 2024 and are ready to win in 2026 and 2028.
Georgia has a solid swath of college-educated, swing White voters in suburban Atlanta that could be a bellwether for any potential 2026 “blue wave” and preview potential red flags for Republicans in 2028. A key metric for Democrats’ strategic shift to the Sun Belt (e.g. Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada) is the growing share of college-educated whites as a share of their electorates. The reality is that Republicans win when a greater share of white voters that didn’t go to college turn out; it’s the opposite for Democrats. About 21% of white Georgia voters are college educated, but they skew more conservative than college-educated White voters in other parts of the Sun Belt and the “Blue Wall” states. If they stay home or split tickets like they have done for Senator Warnock, this could be an indicator that swing, college-educated, White voters are voting against the Trump Administration and the MAGA Republican candidates likely to come out of the Republican primaries for Senate and Governor in Georgia in 2026.
Georgia’s 2025 Public Service Commission race was so out of left field to folks outside of Georgia that I need to see if this is a fluke or if Georgia’s latent Democratic strength is finally starting to show. Last year, Georgia Democrats flipped two seats on their state Public Service Commission (their utilities regulator) – the first time this has ever happened and the first time a Democrat has won a statewide election for a state race in two decades. If this is an indication of Democratic enthusiasm, Georgia Democrats could make major gains.
Georgia will be key to the balance of power in the Senate in 2026. Democrats are now bullish on potentially flipping Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa, and protecting New Hampshire and Michigan – but Jon Ossoff remains their most vulnerable incumbent. And, he doesn’t have the benefit of running on a ticket with Senator Warnock.
Georgia is pushing to vote earlier in the 2028 Democratic primary. Georgia Democrats are working hard to move their Democratic presidential primary up for 2028 – and they should. They’re a legit battleground, they have the second largest Black electorate in the country, and they have one of the most active Black donor bases in Democratic politics. Anyone wanting the Democratic nomination in 2028 will have to be active in Georgia in 2026.
Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock aren’t running. Raphael Warnock has appeared on the ballot five different times (winning every time) and Stacey Abrams has been the Democratic nominee the last two cycles in Georgia. Both bring their own coalitions of voters when they’re on the ballot, but neither is on the ballot this year.
Georgia has decided the balance of the Senate before, and that could be the case again in 2026 if Democrats flip and protect many of their targets.
Senator Ossoff has operated largely in the shadows of Senator Warnock and has at times struggled with Georgia’s Black politicos – highlighted by his fight to remove Congresswoman Nikema Williams from the head of the Georgia Democratic Party.
He has also navigated his own unique politics on Israel (he is Jewish, but he has been one of the more vocal Democratic critics on Israel) – a major litmus test for Democrats in 2026 and 2028.
Can he get young Black men back the polls? Do his progressive politics fall flat with Warnock-Kemp voters?
The Georgia Democratic primary for Governor includes former Atlanta Mayor and current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, Keisha Lance-Bottoms and other notable Georgia Democrats. And, despite Georgia’s importance nationally for Democrats, none of the candidates currently running have broken through nationally in the way that someone like a Wes Moore did a few years ago in Maryland.
Mayor Bottoms’ sometimes troubled tenure in Atlanta and her decision not to run for re-election (a rarity in Atlanta) could prove to be a general election liability. And, in the post-Kamala Harris environment for Black women candidates, can Mayor Bottoms maximize Black male turnout if she’s the nominee? And will her tenure in Atlanta be a net negative in a general election?
All the things that matter nationally for Democrats and their chances to shift the balance of power away from President Trump and Trumpism are there in Georgia in 2026.
I’ll be active in Georgia this year, and I think all Democrats should find a way to Magic City and do some volunteering in Georgia this year.
Let's see what GA is going to do🤨.